Contrasting Americans in 1943

I guess I’m not surprised that most Americans seem more exhausted and detached rather than incensed at what’s happening in Syria.  I certainly have been.  Forces that gridlock us today seem eerily similar to those following the First World War, which resulted in the creation of modern-day Syria.

For more than a decade now, Gallup polls have shown that fewer than a third of Americans think our country should build democracy abroad.  Barely half want us even to defend human rights.

These findings remind me though of another poll in the spring of 1943, barely 18 month after America had entered WWII and still two years before its conclusion.  First, some context might be useful.

In the years between the world wars, America had been gridlocked by a blend of isolationists.

This included Republicans who blocked the League of Nations and conservatives from both political parties who demonized immigrants and immigration while promoting economic segregation during a Gilded Age not unlike the one spawned over the past three decades.

This isolationist blend also featured hate groups such as the huge second coming of the Ku Klux KIan along with over 100 groups forcefully promulgating anti-Semitism, ultimately including both Holocaust enablers and deniers.

Caring Americans did not have near the intensity or energy that the vast majority who were self-centered, intolerant, inflexible and bigoted did.  Sound familiar?

In 1939, a poll of Americans was conducted by Elmo Roper, who pioneered the first scientific national opinion polls.  It was taken a few months after Nazi Germans had herded nearly 30,000 Jewish people into one of three concentration camps.

One was Dachau which my father’s U.S. Army battalion would liberate seven years later (one of his photos of a gas oven there is shown above.)

Even after news reports of this Kristallnacht spread here, the poll showed that fewer than 4-in-10 Americans felt Jews should be treated like other people and 53% believed they were different and should be “restricted.”

Ten percent even wanted them deported from America.   In May of that year, Southern Senators threatened President Roosevelt, if as indicated, he dared grant permission for a ship of Jewish refugees including many incarcerated in Dachau to dock in America.

Entry into the war chastened Americans and within a year and a half, another poll by Roper showed that three quarters felt that after the war, American should play a larger global role.

Nearly the same proportion believed America should “plan to help other nations get on their feet,” and half concurred with active involvement in an International organization with “a court and police force.”

President Roosevelt’s moral leadership was also rewarded with 7-in-10 approving of his handling of the war and 2-out-3 favoring a fourth term.  Most of the wars since then such as Vietnam and Iraq haven’t met the moral leadership test.

Some presidents even bucked public opinion to keep us out of war, such as when retired Five Star General Dwight D. Eisenhower, eager to end the Korean War, brushed aside a poll showing half of all Americans willing to drop “the bomb” on what was then termed Red China.

Recently President Obama has tried to do the same while also recognizing moral imperatives.  Americans seem to have grown weary of war, even in response to moral obscenities such as those taking place in Syria.

Or maybe as Winston Churchill famously said – “…Americans will always do the right thing… after they’ve exhausted all the alternatives.”

In his white paper on Moral Courage, Dr. Rushworth Kidder, founder of the Institute for Global Ethics in 1990, makes the case that moral courage is as important as physical courage but it deals with intangibles, values and convictions.

A friend of mine, Ryke Longest, who heads an interdisciplinary clinic and teaches at Duke University Law School here in Durham where I live, teaches his students this “truth”

“The only fights we surely lose are those we surrender by doubting the value of courage.  Courage is not foolhardiness.  Courage is not bravado.

Courage is the notion that some things worth fighting for are worth risking everything in the battle.  The problem of our present is not unique in history, but rather a common theme recurring through the centuries.”

He goes on to a describe a cycle that repeats itself historically – “Fear creates greed for power.  Greed seeks power.  Power stifles justice.  Justice finds a champion.  Champion encourages ordinary people.  Ordinary people overthrow the greedy.”

If you never had a chance to hear professor Longest, here are two inspiring clips, one from the Wizard of Oz and the other Henry V that he uses to make this point.

I have faith that once again and soon, Americans will find their energy and intensity to stand up for their convictions.

Friends vs. Career

Last week, my brother-in-law shared an op-ed with me written by Steven Johnson entitled We’re living the dream; we just don’t realize it.  Johnson is a frequent TED presenter and author of the new book Future Perfect.

I was reminded while reading Johnson’s piece that as much as I try to stay current, some of my perspectives, such as the divorce rate, are outdated by some 30 years.  He also makes the point that so many of the positive trends in society are the result of a “complex network of forces” including the less publicized role that government plays.

In the build up to the upcoming new year, The Futures Company is one-by-one rolling out a series of white papers regarding what futurists there call 2013 “planning horizons.”

The first, one of five around the topic of “recasting success” is entitled Happiness: Is it your business?  The 17-page paper is an excellent update on what we know and can now measure about happiness including a factoid from a survey that shows that “globally only 37% of people agree [with the statement] ‘I would be happier if I owned more material possessions.”

The report notes that “governments worldwide are also turning to happiness as a better measure of social progress than Gross Domestic Product (GDP.)”  Happiness is also making businesses take another look at how it relates to the bottom line; and social entrepreneurs are being fostered by groups such as Bull City Forward in my adopted-home of Durham, North Carolina which has historically been a center of social innovation.

The Futures white paper on happiness distinguishes the momentary experiences from moods and focuses on our current knowledge and ability to measure what it calls the six main understandings related to overall life satisfaction:

1. Frame of mind
2. Wealth
3. Autonomy and competence
4. Basic needs
5. Meaning and engagement
6. Personal connections

It is reassuring to learn that globally the survey shows that “87% of people feel that your relations with your spouse or partner is highly important in determining how you feel, more so than any other factor including work, health and the amount of money you have.”

Another poll, taken in October, shows that by 2 to 1, Americans prefer great friends to a great career.  The ratio was up to nearly 3 to 1 for my age group which includes people at or approaching retirement age, maybe because from that vantage point it is even easier to make the distinction.

In my former career as a community-destination marketing exec for three different communities it was always difficult to choose, both because of the fact that I went about it was very intense and all-consuming but also because it is often very political.  Key is resisting special interests, however well-intended and that made it difficult to form friendships.

Many times those who seemed to be friends would turn out to be people or cliques who wanted to make unwritten and unspoken alliances where decisions would most likely be primarily based on “who’s asking.”

I have always been blessed to have two or three very close friends from places where I’ve lived in the past as well as in the cities I’ve represented. For this I am most grateful, and one of these special friends over the years has been my soon-to-be 40-year-old daughter, a connection I treasure.

I have numerous other people who I have considered and are perceived by others to be close friends and ironically, the common denominator for each one has always been trust.

These individuals have always been people who trusted me to do what I thought was right for the community and the organizations and stakeholders I served.  They were candid and well-aware of my flaws but always looked out for me, even when it wasn’t in their best interest.

I may have conversed with these friends only once or twice each year, maybe less, now that I’ve retired it might be considered ‘just in passing,’ but I know they “have my back” if needed.  Even though we may have exchanged less than a thousand words of a personal nature during our entire acquaintance,  there remains a deep respect and bond.

In many careers such as the one where I spent 40 years, the decision is not so much making a decision between a career and friendship as it is between being “liked” or being “respected.”  Bottom line: it is not all about friends.

The Futures white paper on happiness is well worth a read, especially with the overload associated with this time of year.  To subscribe to a daily email with the other trends, click here.

At What Point Does A Product Or Service Become Useless?

The scientific results of a poll showing how often outdoor billboards are actually used makes you wonder how much longer we can afford them.

The poll showed that less than one in ten North Carolinians use them a few times a week to decide on a product or service, one in five use them a few times a month and nearly seven out of ten never use them.

A hundred years ago they may have seemed quaint or humorous but already states were curbing them. At what point do they become obsolete? At what point are they no longer worth the blight they bring to roadsides and communities?

At what point do we pull the plug because North Carolina’s scenery is so much more valuable as a cornerstone of the state’s $17 billion tourism economic sector?

At what point will the economic value of the trees and vegetation swathed so they are visible be worth more than the billboards in their ability to remove pollutants from the air and clear storm run-off?

At what point do advertisers realize that it isn’t worth reaching such a tiny segment of the population while irritating the the vast proportion who responded to the poll that outdoor billboards are a detraction and distraction?

At what point will legislators and local officials say enough is enough, even for the small amount of “parasitic” property right involved.

At what point will outdoor billboard owners take management guru Peter Drucker’s advice and pull the plug on them as an obsolete service?

We now have a benchmark so will it be when the proportion of population that finds them completely useless inches up from 68% to 75%? It is only a matter of time.

If I were in or owned stock in a business that owns outdoor billboards, I’d be divesting as fast as possible. Being in the business of irritating people doesn’t have a future.

In the meantime, to keep billboards out of landfills, let ReMakes, an incubator for environmentally-sensitive consumer products, recycle them into hundreds of unique placemats.

A Hazard To Passions

I have a lot of passions but one of them isn’t outdoor billboards.

I blog in objection to billboards because I have a passion for “places” and the things that make them scenic and unique. I saw first hand during the near decade I lived in Alaska just how much better it is without outdoor billboards which were banned there in 1959, almost immediately after achieving statehood.

I also have a passion for riding a Harley-Davidson Cross Bones where you see first hand how distracted motorists can be in general, without something like outdoor billboards which are put in place for the sole purpose of pulling your eyes away from where they should be.

Looking away from the roadway is responsible for 70-90% of unsafe driving events such as drifting, swerving etc. In fact, ten percent of drivers are responsible for 50% of the crash risks and things that distract drivers from keeping their eyes on the roadway are among the highest causes.

Studies show that a two-second distraction doubles your risk of an accident. A study by the Outdoor Billboard industry showed that even in daylight, digital billboards draw your eyes away from the road for two seconds or more twice as often as regular billboards or no billboards at all.

It is no wonder they elected not to do a night time analysis.

Spokesmen for the current bills in the North Carolina legislature argue they are just trying to modernize and that they know of no other business prevented from doing so.

The fact is, even without modernization, these structures are safety hazards and there are tons of examples where public safety trumps this type of so-called improvement. According to scientific opinion polls seven out of every ten North Carolina voters agree and eight out of 10 oppose them.

North Carolina must reject these bills, not just because they will line our roadways with up to seven digital billboards per mile and swath away tree screens from public roadways but more importantly because they override local control and are a purposeful and unnecessary hazard to public safety.

The people working in or representing outdoor billboard companies are not demons nor any more flawed than the rest of us. From what I know of them personally, they are honorable people. But they are wrong and according to an interview in Planning Journal, the courts have ruled for many years that outdoor billboards do not derive their value from private land.

They fall under the what courts term the “parasite principal.” Billboards derive their value from the publicly built and maintained roadways and the public has a right to determine if and where they exist.

Judging by the value of their absence to Alaska, Vermont, Maine and Hawaii and thousands of cities and towns, in North Carolina, the debate needs to be whether we can afford to have them at all, let alone turn our roadways into a drive through yellow pages as the proposed bills allow.

Scientific polls show that 78% of Independent voters, 70% of Democratic voters and 68% of Republican voters all agree that outdoor billboards detract from community appearance.

To quote from a recent interview, “these entire states and thousands of cities and towns and counties have found that beauty and place-making are good for business; ugliness and excessive commercialism are not.”

For more information on the bills before the General Assembly, click here.

Robo-Decisions

There are good reasons we have a "representative" democracy. If we wanted robo-decisions, it would be easy enough to turn everything over to polling computers and do away with elected officials altogether. As much as I value scientific, generalizable public opinion polling, I say we stick with a representative form of decision making.

Republicans bent on repeal of healthcare reform are driving an agenda that represents only 26% of Americans (page 2) and less than half of the just-more-than-a-third who affiliate with their Party.

But, of course, they weren't elected to just represent Republicans or those who support repeal of healthcare reform.

They represent everyone in their districts and states, even those who choose not to vote at all. They definitely don’t just represent bully-pundits or lobbyists or anonymous corporate campaign donors either.

Representative democracy requires conversations, informed by reading, analysis, thoughtful discourse plus courage and open minds.

The AP-GfK poll referenced above which was conducted a week ago on healthcare reform also shows overwhelming support for nearly every element of the reform enacted last year with less than a third opposed to the most unpopular element, a requirement for virtually all Americans to carry healthcare insurance.

By the way, the largest group of Americans who want the act changed, more than 4 out of 10, want the reform to do even more to change the healthcare system.

Given the amount of misinformation and distortion about healthcare reform, it is astonishing that anyone at all favors any of it.

Suppose there were a way to let the 1 in 3 who object to the requirement to carry insurance to completely opt-out on the condition that they or their families never run up even the most indirect or hidden costs to the system.

That just isn’t possible. It would be like saying one is never use streets or roadways or the monetary system or to breathe unpolluted air.

A free society doesn't come free. It comes with responsibilities. And those responsibilities must be carried by everyone. No one gets to pick and choose. No one gets a free ride.

Defusing Bombs

One night last October, I found myself waiting for a dinner order at a restaurant bar in Cheyenne, Wyoming, seated between a two men in their late twenties.  One was a club hockey player from Canada, in route with his team to Colorado for a game, and the other I learned was a person desperate for a new career.

“I lost my job in the gas fields up near Pinedale because Obama was elected,” he declared.  I gently reminded him that the economy collapsed under the previous President and he nodded yes with a sudden epiphany.

Something about him reminded me of my father.  The entire population of Wyoming is no more than the population of the Durham, North Carolina metro area where I live.

He was surprised that I knew where Pinedale was until I revealed that I had grown up on the other side of the Teton Range about the same distance west as Pinedale is southeast of Jackson Hole.

I could tell, even if he hadn’t explained, that he was one of many young people in that part of the country who had married soon after high school, got a good job and started a family only to have his dreams bombed by the financial industry meltdown that none of us truly grasps.

Life isn’t always “fair” and it is likely President Obama is not only blamed by a lot of people for the meltdown, and ironically, probably won’t receive credit by those same people for the turnaround.

I asked the guy at the bar what brought him all the way down to Cheyenne and he told me “bombs.”  His father-in-law had paid for him to take a training course and be certified to “defuse and dispose of bombs” in numerous places around the world.

He wasn’t going to move but he knew he’d never again be able to enjoy, in the same way, the simple pleasures Pinedale gives a sportsman.  He knew he’d miss his wife and kids every day but he was eager to feel useful again, to see the world and to do something to help people.

I told him, “now you’ll have skills and training in two industries”, but something in his eyes told me that he’d never be going back to the gas fields.  I thought back over our conversation as I walked back to my hotel room across a parking lot filled with vehicles and out-of-state hunters readying to follow me in the morning up over the 9,000+ foot Laramie Pass -- I to visit my grandsons in Salt Lake City and the hunters seeking trophy Elk.

I hope everyone who’s life has been altered by this recession can share in some way that young man’s resilience, his lack of bitterness, his humility and courage to pursue a completely different career and his heartfelt gratitude for assistance.

I just wish he could lend his new skill at defusing bombs to regulators in the Federal government who are tasked with making certain that another meltdown like this doesn’t recur at a time when so many new to Congress seem bent on rolling back and short-funding new safeguards including consumer protections.

Opinions About Gun Control Are Different Than We Think

Republicans in Congress, eager to repeal healthcare reform because public support is narrowly divided, might feel differently if the same logic were applied instead to stricter control of gun ownership.

Seriously, while slightly more people support stricter control and past trends would indicate that percentage will increase after the shootings in Arizona, the fascinating story to me in the tracking by the Pew Center are the differences revealed when the opinions about gun control are broken down by the criteria below.

• Sex
• Age
• Race
• Education
• Income
• Marital status
• Party
• Party and Ideology
• Religious Preference
• Region
• Detailed Region
• Urbanicity
• Tea Party support

Threats Up 400% and 300% Respectively on the White House and Congress

A 400% increase in threats against the White House following President Obama’s election and the 300% increase in threats against all members of Congress in the first few months of 2010 bring the Arizona shooting into sharper focus.

The good news is that actual follow through is rare in this country even though it is the most open society on this planet.  Disturbing, however, is  the coincidence between dramatically more hate-filled, anti-government rhetoric in political discourse and disproportionate news coverage and the increased number of threats on elected officials.

My source including links to the original sources for this information is FiveThirtyEight which became one of my favorite blogs from the day I learned about it many months ago from Mike Woodard, a good friend and Durham City Councilman.

This blog also provides an excellent ongoing primer on how to interpret information and distinguish good, solid research which is the most universally valuable element of decision-making, including good community/destination marketing.

Remember An Anecdote Isn’t Data Nor A Trend!

Even with a new study from the University of Massachusetts showing that infrastructure like roads is an even quicker and better path to economic development than tax incentives, I’m not taking for granted the success of the Durham street bond which is on the ballot next month.

I hear good things on the street but as a polling expert on NPR heeded the news media this week, “an anecdote isn’t data nor is it a trend.”  I’ve heard the results of two recent and well conducted polls about the Durham street bond.

One, using only respondents who fit traditional voting patterns, shows the measure passing and I believe it will.  But the turnout in the 2008 election was unusual and from news reports, it appears the upcoming election could also be unusual but for different reasons.  Another poll using all respondents who “say” they are likely to vote in this election shows passage of the street bond could all come down to who actually votes this year.

Ordinarily you can trust the traditional approach which doesn’t ask you if you’re going to vote but assumes you that you will by the nature of your demographics and past voting patterns.  This is especially true in a community like Durham where turnout traditionally tends to consist of a somewhat small but passionate lot of pro-Durham voters.

However, the 2008 election was anything but traditional in Durham and judging by other polls around the country it appears this one may not be traditional either, but for opposite reasons.  One election used optimism to pull many more voters into the process and this time it appears negativity may well pull more “anti” voters into the process.

Just click to enlarge the humorous image above to see the disconnect many voters obviously have between taxes paid and benefits received (shared recently by Rob Gillespie on Facebook.)  Apparently, to the people depicted it won’t matter that the Durham bond will only cost each taxpayer about the same as a cup of coffee each month.

I still recall mid-90s when this happened and we’re still living with the consequences.  They gerrymandered districts to eliminate some great statesmen, did stupid things to drive up the trade deficit and generated some peculiar opinions such as the one asked me at a public hearing by an elected official from the self-proclaimed, pro-business party: When will Durham have enough visitors and no longer need promotion?

This question is humorous because a community theoretically may reach a point at when it doesn’t need more visitor revenue but to sustain that level, each visitor would still need to be re-drawn from scratch each year, so there is no guaranteed par when it comes to visitation.

Hopefully this election won’t take us back to those days…we need all of the optimistic and “can-do” thinking we can get out of this mess.

If you’re interested in public opinion polling as I am, a good blog that I enjoy  which was recommended to me by some friends is FiveThirtyEight .